[
 {
  "id": "burry-nvidia-palantir",
  "who": "Michael Burry (Scion Asset Management)",
  "kind": "short-seller",
  "position": "Bought put options on about 1 million Nvidia shares and 5 million Palantir shares, roughly $1.1B notional and 80% of the disclosed portfolio, in the quarter ending September 2025. Posted that \"sometimes the only winning move is not to play.\"",
  "date": "2025-11",
  "targets": [
   "Nvidia",
   "Palantir"
  ],
  "camps": [
   "llm"
  ],
  "sources": [
   {
    "url": "https://sherwood.news/markets/michael-burry-big-short-discloses-1-1-billion-options-bet-against-nvidia-palantir-puts/",
    "date": "2025-11-04",
    "title": "Michael Burry discloses $1.1 billion options bet against Nvidia, Palantir",
    "publisher": "Sherwood News"
   },
   {
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/10/big-short-michael-burry-wager-ai-nvidia-palantir/",
    "date": "2025-11-10",
    "title": "Michael Burry just placed a big wager against Nvidia and Palantir",
    "publisher": "The Motley Fool"
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "chanos-neoclouds",
  "who": "Jim Chanos",
  "kind": "short-seller",
  "position": "Calls the GPU \"neoclouds\" such as CoreWeave equipment leasing dressed up as growth, financial conduits for Nvidia rather than technology companies, with contracting margins and balance sheets that depend on GPU resale values holding.",
  "date": "2026-06",
  "targets": [
   "CoreWeave",
   "Nebius",
   "GPU neoclouds"
  ],
  "camps": [
   "llm"
  ],
  "sources": [
   {
    "url": "https://iconnections.io/insights/jim-chanos-ai-bubble-data-centers-global-alts-ny-2026/",
    "date": "2026-06-15",
    "title": "Jim Chanos on the AI trade: hopes-and-dreams valuations and the coming wave of stock issuance",
    "publisher": "iConnections"
   },
   {
    "url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/jim-chanos-nvidia-nvda-controls-coreweave-crwv-neocloud-moat/cZotKunRJ0I",
    "date": "2026-08-14",
    "title": "Jim Chanos warns CoreWeave's AI moat depends on Nvidia",
    "publisher": "Stocktwits"
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "covello-goldman",
  "who": "Jim Covello (Goldman Sachs, head of global equity research)",
  "kind": "analyst",
  "position": "Co-authored the June 2024 report \"Gen AI: too much spend, too little benefit?\" arguing that a roughly $1 trillion build-out needs AI to solve complex problems it is not built to solve. Repeated in May 2026 that the economics look worse than two years earlier and that fear of missing out is driving the spend.",
  "date": "2024-06",
  "targets": [
   "AI capital expenditure"
  ],
  "camps": [
   "llm"
  ],
  "sources": [
   {
    "url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/a-skeptical-look-at-ai-investment",
    "date": "2024-07-16",
    "title": "A skeptical look at AI investment",
    "publisher": "Goldman Sachs"
   },
   {
    "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/06/is-ai-a-bubble-goldman-sachs-skeptics-overhyped/",
    "date": "2026-05-06",
    "title": "Goldman Sachs finds insecurity is a key part of the AI boom",
    "publisher": "Fortune"
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "sequoia-600b",
  "who": "David Cahn (Sequoia Capital)",
  "kind": "analyst",
  "position": "The \"$600B question\": at 2024 capital-expenditure levels the industry needs about $600B a year of AI revenue to earn a return on the compute, and the revenue is not there.",
  "date": "2024-06",
  "targets": [
   "AI capital expenditure"
  ],
  "camps": [
   "llm"
  ],
  "sources": [
   {
    "url": "https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/",
    "date": "2024-06-20",
    "title": "AI's $600B question",
    "publisher": "Sequoia Capital"
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "zitron",
  "who": "Ed Zitron",
  "kind": "writer",
  "position": "Argues in a running series that the boom rests on a small number of unprofitable companies whose demand for chips and cloud capacity keeps the rest moving, and that cloud providers are funding their own customers.",
  "date": "2026-07",
  "targets": [
   "OpenAI",
   "Anthropic",
   "Nvidia",
   "hyperscalers"
  ],
  "camps": [
   "llm"
  ],
  "sources": [
   {
    "url": "https://www.bloodinthemachine.com/p/the-state-of-the-ai-bubble-with-ed",
    "date": "2026-08-14",
    "title": "The state of the AI bubble with Ed Zitron",
    "publisher": "Blood in the Machine"
   },
   {
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Zitron",
    "date": "2026-09-05",
    "title": "Ed Zitron",
    "publisher": "Wikipedia"
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "credit-markets-2026",
  "who": "Credit markets",
  "kind": "market",
  "position": "CoreWeave's five-year credit default swaps reached about 855 basis points in July 2026, implying roughly even odds of default on standard models, and Oracle's tripled from the end of 2025, after CoreWeave reported interest expense doubling and negative free cash flow of $4.7B for the first quarter.",
  "date": "2026-07",
  "targets": [
   "CoreWeave",
   "Oracle",
   "Nebius"
  ],
  "camps": [
   "llm"
  ],
  "sources": [
   {
    "url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/29/nebius-drops-10-coreweave-sinks-9-as-rising-credit-swap-costs-hit-the-ai-cloud-trade/",
    "date": "2026-07-29",
    "title": "Nebius drops 10%, CoreWeave sinks 9% as rising credit-swap costs hit the AI cloud trade",
    "publisher": "24/7 Wall St."
   },
   {
    "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/322222/20260730/coreweave-cds-hits-50-default-odds-bond-market-calls-time-gpu-debt-spiral.htm",
    "date": "2026-07-30",
    "title": "CoreWeave CDS hits 50% default odds",
    "publisher": "Tech Times"
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "altman-bubble",
  "who": "Sam Altman",
  "kind": "insider",
  "person": "sam-altman",
  "position": "Said in August 2025 that investors are \"overexcited\" about AI, that some startup valuations are \"insane\", and that \"someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money\", while comparing the moment to the dot-com boom's kernel of truth.",
  "date": "2025-08",
  "targets": [
   "AI startup valuations"
  ],
  "camps": [
   "llm"
  ],
  "sources": [
   {
    "url": "https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/759965/sam-altman-openai-ai-bubble-interview",
    "date": "2025-08-15",
    "title": "Sam Altman says 'yes,' AI is in a bubble",
    "publisher": "The Verge"
   },
   {
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/openai-sam-altman-warns-ai-market-is-in-a-bubble.html",
    "date": "2025-08-18",
    "title": "OpenAI's Sam Altman sees AI bubble forming as industry spending surges",
    "publisher": "CNBC"
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "bezos-industrial-bubble",
  "who": "Jeff Bezos",
  "kind": "insider",
  "person": "jeff-bezos",
  "position": "Called AI \"a kind of industrial bubble, as opposed to financial bubbles\" at Italian Tech Week in October 2025, the kind that leaves useful infrastructure behind when it deflates, while himself funding Prometheus, AMI Labs, Figure and Skild.",
  "date": "2025-10",
  "targets": [
   "AI startup valuations"
  ],
  "camps": [
   "llm",
   "robot",
   "phys"
  ],
  "sources": [
   {
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/jeff-bezos-ai-in-an-industrial-bubble-but-society-to-benefit.html",
    "date": "2025-10-03",
    "title": "Jeff Bezos says AI is in an industrial bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits",
    "publisher": "CNBC"
   }
  ]
 }
]